Will Intuitive Surgical share continue to rally after rising 15% in one month?


[Updated: 7/9/2021] Rise in ISRG shares

The share price of Intuitive surgery (NASDAQ: ISRG) has seen a 15% rise in the last twenty-one trading days, while it is up 64% in the past year. ISRG shares benefited from a rebound in the volume of proceedings and good results in the first quarter. The total number of procedures increased by 16%, as the company placed 298 new da Vinci systems in the first quarter, compared to 10% growth in procedures and 237 systems placements in the quarter of the previous year. This trend is expected to continue with an increase in the Covid-19 vaccination rate, as people feel more confident to leave their homes and attend elective surgeries that have been postponed during the pandemic.

However, now that the ISRG stock has been up 15% in twenty-one trading days, will it continue on its upward trajectory or is a dip imminent? Based on historical performance, there is a greater likelihood that the ISRG share will rise over the next month. Out of 43 cases over the past two years, ISRG stock has risen 15% or more in twenty-one days, 24 of them led to an increase in the stock of the ISRG during the next month period (twenty-one trading days). This historic trend reflects 24 out of 43, or around 56% chance of a rise in ISRG stock in the coming month. See our analysis on Chances of increased intuitive surgical actions for more details.

Calculation of “probability of event” and “chance of increase” using data from the last two years

  1. After moving 3.4% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose over the next five days 51% of the time.
  2. After fluctuating 5.6% or more over a ten-day period, the stock only rose over the next ten days 46% of the time.
  3. After moving 15.0% or more over a twenty-one day period, the stock rose over the next twenty-one days in 56% of cases.

Predict the average return of the intuitive return of surgical stocks: AI predicts the average and excess return of the ISRG after a fall or rise

Intuitive comparison of surgical performance (recent) with peers

  • Five-day return: highest EW at 4%; BSX lower at 1.3%
  • Ten-day return: highest ISRG at 5.6%; Lowest BSX at -0.09%
  • Return in twenty-one days: highest ISRG at 15%; Lowest 2.7% MTD

Although with momentum on its side and based on historical performance it looks like the ISRG stock may see even higher levels, we continue to believe that it is richly valued at current levels, and investors had better wait for any decline to buy the stock. Our update below has more details.

While ISRG stocks may see higher prices, 2020 has created many price discontinuities that may provide some exciting trading opportunities. For example, you will be surprised at how counterintuitive stock valuation is to Mettler vs. Abbott.

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